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SummaryCompanies cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageId=house-poll poll dataNew home prices will likely rise in 2024Property sales, investment seen continuing to slide next yearBEIJING, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Prices of new homes in China are now expected to climb 3% this year after a slew of policy measures to support the country's beleaguered property market, up from earlier expectations for prices to be flat, a Reuters poll showed. But the poll of 11 economists, conducted Nov. 20-28, also showed expectations for 1% growth in new home prices in 2024 were little changed from an August poll. According to the poll, property investment is expected to slump 10% in 2023 and then 8.4% in 2024. Regulators are drafting a list of 50 property developers eligible for a range of financing support, including Country Garden (2007.HK) and state-backed China Vanke (000002.SZ), Bloomberg reported last week. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls)Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Huang Yu, Wang Xingping, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo Organizations: China Index Academy, Fitch, Regulators, HK, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

New home prices in October dropped 0.3% month-on-month after a 0.2% dip in September, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Once a key engine of economic growth accounting for around a quarter of China's economic activity, a regulatory crackdown since 2020 to curb debt has tightened liquidity and raised default risks for developers, delaying many projects. Out of 70 cities, 56 reported declines in monthly prices last month, marking the most cities number since October 2020, up from 54 in September. TWIST AND TURNSHouse prices in three major cities Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou all fell month-on-month in October. For existing home, NBS data showed 67 cities posted month-on-month price declines in October, up from 65 in September.

Persons: Ma Hong, Ma, Liu Aihua, Zhang Dawei, Zhang, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Authorities, Zhixin Investment Research Institute, Nomura, HK, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou

REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Property sales, investment fall at double-digit paceProperty slowdown remains drag on economic growthBEIJING, Oct 18 (Reuters) - China's property sales and investment posted double-digit declines as efforts to support big cities failed to bolster confidence in an industry struggling to emerged from crisis, although the pace of contraction slowed. Property investment fell 18.7% from a year earlier after a 19.1% drop in August, according to Reuters calculations. "S&P Global Ratings expects that the low number of construction starts, an inventory overhang in lower-tier cities, and ever-tightening escrow restrictions will keep property sales depressed," S&P's credit analysts said in a note on Monday. Property investment in the first nine months of 2023 fell by 9.1% from a year earlier, after slumping 8.8% in January-August, according to NBS data. Funds raised by China's property developers were down 13.5% year-on-year after a 12.9% slide in January-August.

Persons: Jason Lee, Zhou Hao, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Christian Schmollinger, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Monetary Fund, Property, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING

A construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. The expected 0% year-on-year growth in home prices compared with a 1.4% gain tipped in the previous forecast in May, a Reuters poll of 12 economists conducted from Aug. 16-25 showed. "It is estimated that every one percentage point decline in property investment may drag down the GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points," said analyst Ma Hong at Zhixin Investment Research Institute. China observers are sceptical that the property sector could turn a corner in the near term despite Beijing's support measures. The government has suspended publishing data on youth unemployment, which has hit record highs in what analysts say is partly a symptom of regulatory crackdowns on big employers in real estate and other industries.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Wang Xingping, Fitch Bohua, Ma Hong, Gao Yuhong, Xing Zhaopeng, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Shuyan Wang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Fitch, Authorities, Zhixin Investment Research Institute, Thomson Locations: Tianjin, China, BEIJING

Property sales by floor area declined 28.1% year-on-year, extending a 19.7% fall in May, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). For June, property investment totaled to 1.2849 trillion yuan, falling 20.6% from a year earlier after a 21.5% drop in May, according to Reuters calculations. For January-June, property sales by floor area were down 5.3% year-on-year compared with a 0.9% fall in the first five months. Property investment fell 7.9% in the first six months, after slumping 7.2% in January-May from the same period a year earlier. New construction starts measured by floor area fell 24.3% year-on-year, after a 22.6% drop in the first five months.

Persons: Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Authorities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING

Prices were also unchanged from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1% increase in May. The property sector, accounting for one-fourth of activity in the world's second-biggest economy, slumped sharply last year as developers defaulted on debts and suspended construction of presold housing projects. Markets widely expect more stimulus around a meeting of the ruling Communist Party's Politburo late this month, setting the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year. Thirty-one of the 70 cities monitored by NBS recorded month-on-month rises in new home prices, down from 46 in May. Prices were flat after rising in May in tier-one cities including Beijing and tier-two cities.

Persons: Chen Xiao, Hunter, Chen, Zou Lan, Goldman Sachs, dampening, Qiaoyi Li, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, William Mallard Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party's Politburo, Zhuge, NBS, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing

Summary Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fallsNon-manufacturing PMI falls, as services slowPMIs show economic recovery losing steamMarkets skid on PMI weaknessBEIJING, May 31 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank faster than expected in May on weakening demand, heaping pressure on policymakers to shore up a patchy economic recovery and knocking Asian financial markets lower. "The PMI data reveal that China may heading to a K-shaped recovery," said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang LaSalle. "The sluggish domestic demand could weigh on China's sustainable growth, if there are no efficient and effective policy moves to engineer a broad-based recovery," said Pang. The PMI subindexes for May showed factory output swung to contraction from an expansion while new orders, including new exports, fell for the second month. Last month, imports contracted sharply, factory gate prices fell, property investment slumped, industrial profits plunged and factory output and retail sales both missed forecasts.

Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle's Pang, Li Qiang, Zhiwei Zhang, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, . Service, New, Jones, Labor, Nomura, Barclays, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Asia, New Zealand, China, Japan

Analysts estimate that nearly $700 billion of mortgages – close to one-eighth China's outstanding total – have been prepaid since early last year, when banks started to lower borrowing rates. This threatens banks' profits on mortgages, which accounted for about 30% of outstanding loans at China's five biggest banks as of last June, according to their latest financial reports. The current disinterest in new home purchases contrasts sharply with the overheated property market of prior years, when authorities kept mortgage rates high to cool speculation. Towards the middle of last year, however, regulators began lowering benchmark mortgage rates to prop up property demand, after a liquidity crisis among developers sent home prices and sales into a downward spiral. "I decided to do so because I'm burdened with a mortgage rate that's too high," Wang said.

Analysts expect sentiment to recover gradually next year, as the relaxation of COVID restrictions and property support policies take effect. Property investment fell the fastest since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, down 19.9% on year in November after a 16% slump in October, the NBS said in a statement. Beike's Liu predicted housing demand will be gradually released in 2023 as consumer sentiment will improve with a progress in housing delivery. Although markets cheered the easing policies, which are expected to boost economic growth in the long term, some analysts say fragile overall demand will keep the property sector's recovery gradual. "Considering the challenging demographic trend, and policymakers' long-held stance that 'housing is for living in, not for speculation', we maintain our view that the property sector recovery should be gradual and bumpy," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

As the coronavirus has spread in China, Beijing has imposed prolonged lockdowns in several places. The stringent COVID-19 measures also stoked rare street protests across many cities over the weekend. Reuters GraphicsThe sub-indexes for manufacturing PMI including output, employment and suppliers' delivery times all shrank in November at a faster pace than the month before, the data showed. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

REUTERS/Tingshu WangSummary Sept new home prices fall 0.2% m/m, down for second monthNew home prices down 1.5% y/y, fastest pace since Aug 201554 cities out of 70 report price declinesBEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - China's September new home prices fell for the second straight month as mortgage boycotts, a heightened debt crisis and COVID-19 curbs weighed on homebuyers' sentiment. China's property sector has been beset by multiple headwinds after regulators clamped down on excessive borrowing since mid-2020. In monthly terms, new home prices in tier-two cities fell 0.2% and declined 0.4% in tier-three cities. Property investment fell 12.1% from a year earlier, slightly narrowing from a 13.8% fall in August. "There is little room to give more help to real estate property developers as doing so will risk the credibility of government reform (for property developers, that means the deleveraging reform)," said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

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